Bournemouth 1–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

8/10/2019

Premier League · Round 1Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bournemouth60%

×Draw22%

Sheffield Utd17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.87

Bournemouth

1.84

Sheffield Utd

0.87

Bournemouth creates 111% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 10 away

1.70

creates per match

0.66

1.08

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.70

Sheffield Utd

0.66

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.08

Sheffield Utd

1.98

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Bournemouth-0.23scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

83%

Bournemouth or Sheffield Utd

78%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

40%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

35%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

84%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

55%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

28%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

58%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

22%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

78%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.70 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sheffield Utd attack 0.66 + Bournemouth defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bournemouth scores more

60%

level

22%

Sheffield Utd scores more

17%

Bournemouth at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff