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Botafogo vs Gremio — Serie A 2026

Botafogo
Botafogo
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Gremio
Gremio
11/9/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 33Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Botafogo52%
×Draw24%
Gremio24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo
1.66
Gremio
1.04

Botafogo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Botafogo
1.55
Gremio
1.02

allows per match

Botafogo
1.05
Gremio
1.76

finishing

Botafogo+0.45scores more
Gremio-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw
76%
Botafogo or Gremio
76%
Draw or Gremio
48%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+
28%
Gremio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals
81%
Botafogo 2+ goals
49%
Botafogo 3+ goals
23%
Gremio 1+ goals
65%
Gremio 2+ goals
28%
Gremio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)
69%
Gremio (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.05 · 18 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.55 + Gremio defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gremio attack 1.02 + Botafogo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botafogo scores more
52%
level
24%
Gremio scores more
24%

Botafogo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo vs Gremio

Gremio beat Botafogo 4-3 in Serie A on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.