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Botafogo SP vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
Everton Morelli 4'
Gustavo Coutinho 23' (pen)
4/19/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 5Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Botafogo SP36%
×Draw27%
Atletico Goianiense37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP
1.27
Atletico Goianiense
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP
1.39
Atletico Goianiense
1.69

allows per match

Botafogo SP
0.88
Atletico Goianiense
1.16

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.18scores more
Atletico Goianiense-0.69scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw
63%
Botafogo SP or Atletico Goianiense
73%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
64%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals
72%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
36%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
37%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
50%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.39 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.69 + Botafogo SP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botafogo SP scores more
36%
level
27%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
37%

Atletico Goianiense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Gustavo CoutinhoAtletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense · F
7.5

Match Events

4'
Everton Morelli
20'
Gustavo CoutinhoPenalty confirmed
23'
Gustavo CoutinhoPenalty
25'
Guilherme Lopes
26'
Wallace
34'
Ariel← Igor Henrique
40'
Luizão
45+2'
Gustavo Coutinho
46'
Guilherme← Assis
46'
Bruno Jose← Geovany Soares
57'
Leo Jaco← Gustavo Coutinho
59'
Thalles← Luizao
59'
Wesley Santos← Kelvin
74'
Leo Tocantins← Marrony
77'
Jefferson Nem← Ze Hugo
77'
Marquinho← Leandro Maciel
79'
Ariel Gomes
90'
Darlan← Wallace

Possession

56%Botafogo

Shots

12Botafogo

Pass accuracy

51%Botafogo

Statistics

BotafogoAtletico
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots10
1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.22
7Corners5
14Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target3
3Off Target3
5Blocked4
6Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
353Total Passes282
287Accurate Passes219
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.91Goals Prevented0.91
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Serie B: Botafogo SP 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

Botafogo SP and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 19, 2026.

Goals: Everton Morelli (4'), Gustavo Coutinho (23' pen).

Botafogo SP controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Ribeirao Preto.