Botafogo SP 1–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Botafogo SP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Alexandre Jesus 11'

F. Martinez 90'

4/13/2025

Serie B · Round 2Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Botafogo SP37%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.37

Botafogo SP

1.38

Atletico Goianiense

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.39

creates per match

1.86

0.88

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.39

Atletico Goianiense

1.86

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.88

Atletico Goianiense

1.38

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.18scores more

Atletico Goianiense-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

63%

Botafogo SP or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

63%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

75%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

40%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

16%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.39 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.86 + Botafogo SP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

37%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

37%

Botafogo SP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Pedro Henrique

Atletico Goianiense · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

39'

41'

44'

46'

Ariel← Leo Naldi

52'

Rhaldney

64'

S. Abdulai← Wesley Dias

64'

A. Dramisino← Jonathan Cafu

68'

Leandro Maciel

75'

Ruan Teixeira← Rai Ramos

76'

Robert Conceicao← Willian Pottker

79'

Matheus Regis← L. Maciel

79'

Wallison← Jefferson Nem

81'

Rai Natalino← Kauan Rodrigues

87'

F. Martinez← Marcelinho

90+6'

Matheus Régis

90'

F. Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoAtletico

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots20

6Corners6

18Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots20

6On Target3

4Off Target8

1Blocked9

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

36%Possession64%

235Total Passes428

156Accurate Passes353

66%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3