Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

Daniel 90+4'

Salatiel 46'

5/27/2023

Serie B · Round 9Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico Goianiense49%

×Draw27%

Botafogo SP24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Atletico Goianiense

1.40

Botafogo SP

0.90

Atletico Goianiense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.58

creates per match

0.72

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.58

Botafogo SP

0.72

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.07

Botafogo SP

1.22

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.41scores less

Botafogo SP-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

76%

Atletico Goianiense or Botafogo SP

73%

Draw or Botafogo SP

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

24%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

41%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

17%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

59%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

23%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

67%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.58 + Botafogo SP defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Botafogo SP attack 0.72 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

49%

level

27%

Botafogo SP scores more

24%

Atletico Goianiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Tárik

Botafogo SP · M

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Heron

17'

Jefferson← Heron

18'

Renato

46'

Shaylon← Matheus Sales

46'

T. Andrade← Lucas Cardoso

46'

Salatiel↳ Tárik

59'

Marco Antônio← David Francisco

63'

Carlos Manuel← Robinho

65'

Patrick Brey

71'

Bruno Tubarão← Jefferson

72'

Daniel← Luiz Fernando

80'

Thassio← Salatiel

80'

Edson← Osman

89'

Shaylon

90+9'

Ramon

90+7'

Kelvin

90+5'

DanielGoal confirmed

90+4'

Daniel↳ Kelvin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBotafogo

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots14

6Corners8

12Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots14

4On Target4

7Off Target6

5Blocked4

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box9

Passing

67%Possession33%

536Total Passes259

463Accurate Passes179

86%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls18

5Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo SP

Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo SP drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 27, 2023.

Goals: Salatiel (46'), Daniel (90+4').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo SP