Bolton 1–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Bolton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

D. John 7'

2/13/2021

League Two · Round 29University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton43%

×Draw29%

Stevenage27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Bolton

1.21

Stevenage

0.90

Bolton creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 100 away

1.17

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bolton

1.17

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Bolton

1.00

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

73%

Bolton or Stevenage

71%

Draw or Stevenage

57%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

19%

Stevenage wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

70%

Bolton 2+ goals

34%

Bolton 3+ goals

12%

Stevenage 1+ goals

59%

Stevenage 2+ goals

23%

Stevenage 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

61%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bolton scores more

43%

level

29%

Stevenage scores more

27%

Bolton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Baptiste

Bolton · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

D. John↳ O. Afolayan

57'

M. Stevens← D. Newton

60'

A. Gnahoua← N. Delfouneso

64'

L. Isgrove← M. Maddison

76'

R. Hutton← L. Wildin

78'

Jordan Williams

81'

A. Tutte← O. Afolayan

85'

George Thomason

86'

J. Roles← J. Aitchison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonStevenage

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots17

3Corners7

11Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots17

5On Target3

4Off Target7

1Blocked7

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box9

Passing

54%Possession46%

433Total Passes343

332Accurate Passes239

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1