Bolton 1–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

O. Afolayan 86'

9/17/2022

League One · Round 10University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bolton51%

×Draw23%

Peterborough27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.31

Bolton

1.89

Peterborough

1.31

Bolton creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.85

creates per match

1.24

1.38

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bolton

1.85

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Bolton

1.38

Peterborough

1.92

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Bolton+0.46scores more

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

73%

Bolton or Peterborough

77%

Draw or Peterborough

49%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

29%

Peterborough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

85%

Bolton 2+ goals

56%

Bolton 3+ goals

29%

Peterborough 1+ goals

73%

Peterborough 2+ goals

38%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

66%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.85 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolton scores more

51%

level

23%

Peterborough scores more

27%

Bolton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

G. Jones

Bolton · D

7.3

Match Events

26'

35'

45+4'

45+4'

61'

E. Mason-Clark← R. Jones

62'

J. Ward← K. Poku

70'

J. Böðvarsson← E. Kachunga

70'

O. Afolayan← K. Dempsey

78'

K. Sadlier← J. Iredale

83'

A. Bakayoko← D. Charles

86'

O. Afolayan

88'

J. Marriott← J. Taylor

88'

H. Kyprianou← J. Fuchs

90+2'

Kieran Sadlier

90+1'

Jordan Williams

90'

Hector Kyprianou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonPeterborough

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots4

6Corners4

17Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots4

3On Target0

2Off Target1

2Blocked3

4Inside Box1

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

389Total Passes287

273Accurate Passes183

70%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

League One: Bolton 1–0 Peterborough

Bolton beat Peterborough 1-0 in League One on September 17, 2022.

Goals: O. Afolayan (86').

Bolton controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 4.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.

Bolton vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Bolton 1–0 Peterborough