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Bolton vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
CANC
15:00
Peterborough
Peterborough
3/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 38University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bolton51%
×Draw23%
Peterborough27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.89
Peterborough
1.31

Bolton creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.85
Peterborough
1.24

allows per match

Bolton
1.38
Peterborough
1.92

finishing

Bolton+0.46scores more
Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
73%
Bolton or Peterborough
77%
Draw or Peterborough
49%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
29%
Peterborough wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
85%
Bolton 2+ goals
56%
Bolton 3+ goals
29%
Peterborough 1+ goals
73%
Peterborough 2+ goals
38%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
66%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.85 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolton scores more
51%
level
23%
Peterborough scores more
27%

Bolton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bolton host Peterborough

March 14, 2020: Bolton take on Peterborough in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bolton host Peterborough at University of Bolton Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.