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Bolton vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
15:00
Birmingham
Birmingham
3/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
40%
Bolton
model favours
40%27%33%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton40%
×Draw27%
Birmingham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.33
Birmingham
1.18

Bolton creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 168 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Birmingham
0.97

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Birmingham
1.51

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
67%
Bolton or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
74%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
69%
Birmingham 2+ goals
33%
Birmingham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
55%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more
40%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
33%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • 80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
Birmingham
Balanced
41%Possession46%
66%Pass accuracy69%
9.7ShotsBiggest gap11.9
—xG1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BoltonBirmingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Bolton
2
Draws
4
Birmingham
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 30%
3–10–21–00–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bolton
WLWWW
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton face Birmingham (Championship)

Championship returns with Bolton hosting Birmingham. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bolton host Birmingham at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.