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Bolton vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
L. Jutkiewicz 40'
4/3/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton40%
×Draw27%
Birmingham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.33
Birmingham
1.18

Bolton creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 168 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Birmingham
0.97

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Birmingham
1.51

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
67%
Bolton or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
74%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
69%
Birmingham 2+ goals
33%
Birmingham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
55%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more
40%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
33%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
R. BurkeBoltonBolton · D
7.5

Match Events

40'
L. Jutkiewicz↳ J. Maghoma
54'
Jon Flanagan
56'
C. Noone← Derik Osede
67'
Che Adams
72'
Z. Clough← W. Buckley
75'
David Davis
75'
J. Kirchhoff← K. Henry
77'
M. Kieftenbeld← Jota Peleteiro
84'
J. Cogley← J. Maghoma
90+3'
M. Roberts← L. Jutkiewicz

Possession

58%Bolton

Shots

8Bolton

Pass accuracy

54%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonBirmingham
Overview
58%Possession42%
8Total Shots10
8Corners6
14Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots10
0On Target3
3Off Target3
5Blocked4
5Inside Box6
3Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
388Total Passes276
261Accurate Passes158
67%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Bolton vs Birmingham

Birmingham beat Bolton 1-0 in Championship on April 3, 2018.

Goals: L. Jutkiewicz (40').

Bolton controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Horwich.