Birmingham 0–0 Bolton: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

8/15/2017

Championship · Round 3St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Birmingham47%

×Draw26%

Bolton26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Birmingham

1.46

Bolton

1.02

Birmingham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 53 away

1.25

creates per match

0.75

1.29

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Bolton

0.75

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Bolton

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

74%

Birmingham or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

23%

Bolton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

77%

Birmingham 2+ goals

43%

Birmingham 3+ goals

18%

Bolton 1+ goals

64%

Bolton 2+ goals

27%

Bolton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

64%

Bolton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Bolton defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bolton attack 0.75 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more

47%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

26%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Roberts

Birmingham · D

7.8

Match Events

26'

R. Shotton← M. Morrison

46'

L. Jutkiewicz← C. NDoye

50'

Jacques Maghoma

70'

A. Le Fondre← A. Armstrong

73'

I. Vassell← C. Donaldson

83'

A. Wilbraham← G. Madine

87'

Filipe Morais

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBolton

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots12

7Corners4

13Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots12

0On Target2

7Off Target7

3Blocked3

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

400Total Passes343

275Accurate Passes226

69%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0