Birmingham vs Bolton — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Birmingham58%
Bolton18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Birmingham creates 104% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 135 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Birmingham ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches
Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Birmingham attack 2.04 + Bolton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.69
Bolton attack 1.19 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Birmingham at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Birmingham substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lincoln
CardiffBolton
Stockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Birmingham host Bolton on Tuesday, 22 October 2024 at 18:45. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Birmingham vs Bolton
Birmingham beat Bolton 2-0 in League One on October 22, 2024.
Goals: T. Iwata (3'), J. Stansfield (86' pen).
Birmingham controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 8.
The match was played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Birmingham.