Bolton 0–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Birmingham

P. Robinson 20'

10/20/2015

Championship · Round 12Macron Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton40%

×Draw27%

Birmingham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Bolton

1.33

Birmingham

1.18

Bolton creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 168 away

1.16

creates per match

0.97

1.39

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Bolton

1.16

Birmingham

0.97

allows per match

Bolton

1.39

Birmingham

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

67%

Bolton or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

18%

Birmingham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

74%

Bolton 2+ goals

38%

Bolton 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

69%

Birmingham 2+ goals

33%

Birmingham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

55%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more

40%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

33%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

P. Robinson

Birmingham · D

8.1

Match Events

15'

Jonathan Grounds

20'

P. Robinson↳ C. Donaldson

23'

34'

37'

42'

43'

M. Clayton← Wellington Silva

63'

Jose Manuel Casado

68'

N. Danns← D. Pratley

72'

Paul Robinson

73'

J. Spector← A. Shinnie

76'

K. Woolery← E. Heskey

85'

V. Solomon-Otabor← J. Maghoma

88'

Jon Toral← D. Gray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonBirmingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots14

6Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

16Total Shots14

6On Target8

5Off Target1

5Blocked5

13Inside Box12

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

441Total Passes330

319Accurate Passes229

72%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

0Fouls0

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides6