Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bolton vs Accrington ST — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bolton
Bolton
FT
3 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sir Tom Finney Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bolton51%
×Draw22%
Accrington ST27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
2.02
Accrington ST
1.43

Bolton creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.71
Accrington ST
2.00

allows per match

Bolton
0.86
Accrington ST
2.33

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
73%
Bolton or Accrington ST
78%
Draw or Accrington ST
49%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
30%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
87%
Bolton 2+ goals
60%
Bolton 3+ goals
33%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
76%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
42%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
65%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.71 + Accrington ST defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Accrington ST attack 2.00 + Bolton defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolton scores more
51%
level
22%
Accrington ST scores more
27%

Bolton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolton vs Accrington ST

Bolton beat Accrington ST 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Sir Tom Finney Stadium in Preston, Lancashire.