Accrington ST 1–0 Bolton: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

T. Leigh 20'

12/11/2021

League One · Round 22Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST39%

×Draw26%

Bolton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.31

Accrington ST

1.38

Bolton

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 135 away

1.42

creates per match

1.19

1.44

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Bolton

1.19

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Bolton

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

65%

Accrington ST or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

18%

Bolton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

75%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

40%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

16%

Bolton 1+ goals

73%

Bolton 2+ goals

38%

Bolton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

52%

Bolton (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Bolton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bolton attack 1.19 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more

39%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

35%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

T. Leigh

Accrington ST · M

8.0

Match Events

20'

T. Leigh↳ R. Sykes

45'

Yeboah Amankwah

49'

J. O'Sullivan← S. McConville

50'

Liam Coyle

63'

Toby Savin

66'

X. Amaechi← E. Doyle

70'

M. Butcher← J. Malcolm

84'

J. Woods← T. Leigh

88'

N. Delfouneso← K. Lee

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonBolton

Overview

42%Possession58%

18Total Shots8

7Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots8

6On Target2

6Off Target4

6Blocked2

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

265Total Passes373

140Accurate Passes246

53%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1