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Accrington ST vs Bolton — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
E. Hamilton 48'
S. Whalley 8'
O. Afolayan 75'
K. Lee 71'
H. Rodgers 56' (OG)
10/22/2022League OneLeague One · Round 16Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST39%
×Draw26%
Bolton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.38
Bolton
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 135 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.42
Bolton
1.19

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.44
Bolton
1.33

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
65%
Accrington ST or Bolton
74%
Draw or Bolton
61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
18%
Bolton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
75%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
40%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
16%
Bolton 1+ goals
73%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
52%
Bolton (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Bolton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bolton attack 1.19 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more
39%
level
26%
Bolton scores more
35%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
RicardoBoltonBolton · D
7.7

Match Events

8'
S. Whalley↳ J. Pritchard
42'
Mitchell Clark
48'
E. Hamilton
50'
Sean McConville
52'
E. Kachunga← J. Böðvarsson
53'
G. Thomason← M. Williams
53'
J. Iredale← L. Isgrove
56'
H. RodgersOwn goal
59'
Harvey Rodgers
71'
K. Lee↳ E. Kachunga
75'
O. Afolayan↳ G. Thomason
77'
Shaun Whalley
79'
R. Longelo-Mbule← S. McConville
86'
N. Delfouneso← S. Whalley
87'
A. Bakayoko← D. Charles
90+2'
Gethin Jones
90'
K. Sadlier← O. Afolayan

Possession

39%Accrington

Shots

13Accrington

Pass accuracy

42%Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonBolton
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots17
4Corners7
17Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots17
5On Target7
2Off Target8
6Blocked2
6Inside Box12
7Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
252Total Passes381
116Accurate Passes239
46%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Bolton

Bolton beat Accrington ST 3-2 in League One on October 22, 2022.

Goals: S. Whalley (8'), E. Hamilton (48'), H. Rodgers (56' o.g.), K. Lee (71'), O. Afolayan (75').

Bolton controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.