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Boca Juniors vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
R. Battaglia 40'
4/6/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Boca Juniors52%
×Draw26%
Barracas Central22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.48
Barracas Central
0.86

Boca Juniors creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Barracas Central
0.81

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Barracas Central
1.44

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Barracas Central-0.02on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
78%
Boca Juniors or Barracas Central
74%
Draw or Barracas Central
48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
26%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
77%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
43%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
19%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
58%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
21%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
70%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Barracas Central defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barracas Central attack 0.81 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
52%
level
26%
Barracas Central scores more
22%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. BattagliaBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · D
8.0

Match Events

32'
Milton Giménez
40'
R. Battaglia↳ L. Blanco
43'
Rodrigo Insúa
46'
J. Candia← T. Porra
59'
R. Barrios← J. Ruiz
59'
N. Barrios← I. Tapia
59'
M. Duarte← F. Mater
64'
L. Advincula← L. Blondel
64'
K. Zenon← E. Zeballos
75'
Miguel Merentiel← M. Gimenez
77'
G. Morales← F. Bruera
78'
Marcos Rojo
86'
A. Velasco← Carlos Palacios
86'
B. Aguirre← E. Cavani

Possession

58%Boca

Shots

6Boca

Pass accuracy

53%Boca

Statistics

BocaBarracas
Overview
58%Possession42%
6Total Shots7
6Corners2
15Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots7
1On Target0
3Off Target5
2Blocked2
5Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
407Total Passes301
355Accurate Passes229
87%Pass Accuracy76%
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 1–0 Barracas Central

Boca Juniors beat Barracas Central 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 6, 2025.

Goals: R. Battaglia (40').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto J. Armando in Buenos Aires.