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Boca Juniors vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
M. Giménez 37'
M. Zalazar 7'
8/4/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Boca Juniors52%
×Draw26%
Barracas Central22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.48
Barracas Central
0.86

Boca Juniors creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Barracas Central
0.81

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Barracas Central
1.44

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Barracas Central-0.02on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
78%
Boca Juniors or Barracas Central
74%
Draw or Barracas Central
48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
26%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
77%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
43%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
19%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
58%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
21%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
70%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Barracas Central defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barracas Central attack 0.81 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
52%
level
26%
Barracas Central scores more
22%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. MerentielBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · F
8.2

Match Events

7'
M. Zalazar↳ R. Herrera
11'
Nicolás Figal
31'
Marco Iacobellis
37'
M. Giménez↳ L. Blanco
46'
B. Aguirre← L. Di Lollo
62'
D. Juárez← M. Iacobellis
62'
J. Candia← A. Cantero
68'
I. Tapia← A. Domínguez
69'
J. Saralegui← E. Zeballos
74'
Tomás Belmonte
81'
Gary Medel
82'
A. Juárez← M. Zalazar
88'
J. Ceballos← A. Martegani

Possession

60%Boca

Shots

24Boca

Pass accuracy

53%Boca

Statistics

BocaBarracas
Overview
60%Possession40%
24Total Shots16
1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.68
11Corners2
13Fouls11
Shots
24Total Shots16
3On Target3
11Off Target9
10Blocked4
17Inside Box5
7Outside Box11
Passing
60%Possession40%
469Total Passes320
392Accurate Passes242
84%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.03Goals Prevented0.03
Discipline
13Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 1–1 Barracas Central

Boca Juniors and Barracas Central drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 4, 2024.

Goals: M. Zalazar (7'), M. Giménez (37').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (60%) and registered 24 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.