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Barracas Central vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Barracas Central
Barracas Central
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
R. Insua 20'
Miguel Merentiel 66'
M. Gimenez 56', 53'
10/27/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Claudio Fabian Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Barracas Central35%
×Draw30%
Boca Juniors35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barracas Central
1.06
Boca Juniors
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Barracas Central
0.98
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Barracas Central
1.22
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Barracas Central-0.26scores less
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw
65%
Barracas Central or Boca Juniors
70%
Draw or Boca Juniors
65%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+
14%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals
65%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
29%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
9%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
65%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
29%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)
50%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 0.98 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Barracas Central defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Barracas Central scores more
35%
level
30%
Boca Juniors scores more
35%

Barracas Central at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. GimenezBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · F
8.7

Match Events

3'
Rafael Barrios
7'
Iván Tapia
7'
Leandro Paredes
14'
Iván Tapia
14'
Iván Tapia
19'
S. Rosane← F. Bruera
20'
R. Insua↳ J. Candia
45'
Dardo Miloc
45'
Carlos Palacios
46'
E. Zeballos← W. H. Alarcon Cepeda
48'
Javier Ruiz
53'
M. Gimenez
56'
M. Gimenez↳ J. Barinaga
57'
A. Herrera← Carlos Palacios
58'
L. Advincula← J. Barinaga
59'
Jhonatan Candia
65'
T. Porra← J. Candia
65'
G. Morales← D. Miloc
66'
Miguel Merentiel↳ E. Zeballos
71'
F. Mater← Y. Rak
72'
N. Barrios← R. Barrios
76'
Rodrigo Insúa
77'
T. Belmonte← Miguel Merentiel
90+4'
B. Aguirre← L. Paredes

Possession

28%Barracas

Shots

7Barracas

Pass accuracy

44%Barracas

Statistics

BarracasBoca
Overview
28%Possession72%
7Total Shots14
0.20Expected Goals (xG)1.15
2Corners3
9Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots14
5On Target7
1Off Target5
1Blocked2
1Inside Box7
6Outside Box7
Passing
28%Possession72%
255Total Passes664
185Accurate Passes612
73%Pass Accuracy92%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11
Discipline
9Fouls8
7Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Barracas Central 1–3 Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Barracas Central 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 27, 2025.

Goals: R. Insua (20'), M. Gimenez (53', 56'), Miguel Merentiel (66').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (72%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Claudio Fabian Tapia in Barracas.