Boca Juniors 2–0 Banfield: Result & Stats

Boca Juniors

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Banfield

E. Cavani 82'

Miguel Merentiel 55'

8/24/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Boca Juniors51%

×Draw27%

Banfield22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.81

Boca Juniors

1.40

Banfield

0.81

Boca Juniors creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.52

creates per match

0.70

0.92

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.52

Banfield

0.70

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.92

Banfield

1.27

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par

Banfield-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

78%

Boca Juniors or Banfield

73%

Draw or Banfield

49%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

25%

Banfield wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

75%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

41%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

17%

Banfield 1+ goals

56%

Banfield 2+ goals

19%

Banfield 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

70%

Banfield (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Banfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Banfield attack 0.70 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

51%

level

27%

Banfield scores more

22%

Boca Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Paredes

Boca Juniors · M

8.5

Match Events

45+2'

Lautaro Di Lollo

55'

Miguel Merentiel↳ B. Aguirre

68'

T. Adoryan← F. Castaneda

68'

S. Esquivel← L. Rios

75'

W. H. Alarcon Cepeda← Carlos Palacios

75'

E. Zeballos← B. Aguirre

79'

S. Lopez← J. L. Alfaro

79'

A. Alaniz← G. Rios

82'

E. Cavani

84'

A. Velasco← Miguel Merentiel

88'

L. Advincula← J. Barinaga

88'

M. Delgado← L. Paredes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaBanfield

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots9

2.18Expected Goals (xG)0.48

3Corners2

9Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots9

8On Target2

6Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

564Total Passes293

490Accurate Passes213

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-0.04Goals Prevented-0.04

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0