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Boca Juniors vs Banfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Banfield
Banfield
R. Enrique 38', 34'
G. Galoppo 21'
7/2/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Boca Juniors51%
×Draw27%
Banfield22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.40
Banfield
0.81

Boca Juniors creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Banfield
0.70

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Banfield
1.27

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Banfield-0.13scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Banfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
78%
Boca Juniors or Banfield
73%
Draw or Banfield
49%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
25%
Banfield wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
41%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
17%
Banfield 1+ goals
56%
Banfield 2+ goals
19%
Banfield 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
70%
Banfield (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Banfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Banfield attack 0.70 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
51%
level
27%
Banfield scores more
22%

Boca Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
R. EnriqueBanfieldBanfield · F
8.9

Match Events

17'
A. Molinas
21'
G. Galoppo↳ R. Enrique
25'
A. Sandez
34'
R. Enrique↳ A. Urzi
38'
R. Enrique↳ G. Galoppo
59'
L. Del Pino← D. Gissi
63'
N. Orsini
67'
A. Cabrera
71'
J. Campuzano← E. Rolón
72'
G. Tanco← L. Abecasis
72'
J. Dátolo← A. Urzi
73'
L. Langoni← L. Vázquez
77'
M. Romero← M. González
78'
J. Cruz← G. Galoppo
79'
N. Domingo

Possession

67%Boca

Shots

13Boca

Pass accuracy

54%Boca

Statistics

BocaBanfield
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots11
7Corners1
11Fouls20
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target5
4Off Target5
4Blocked1
6Inside Box7
7Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
549Total Passes273
448Accurate Passes194
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls20
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 0–3 Banfield

Banfield beat Boca Juniors 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 2, 2022.

Goals: G. Galoppo (21'), R. Enrique (34', 38').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.