Banfield 1–0 Boca Juniors: Result & Stats

Banfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Boca Juniors

A. Quiroz 28'

3/13/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 7Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Banfield40%

×Draw28%

Boca Juniors32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.07

Banfield

1.23

Boca Juniors

1.07

Banfield creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

0.91

1.23

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Banfield

1.31

Boca Juniors

0.91

allows per match

Banfield

1.23

Boca Juniors

1.15

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Banfield-0.19scores less

Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

68%

Banfield or Boca Juniors

72%

Draw or Boca Juniors

60%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

17%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

71%

Banfield 2+ goals

35%

Banfield 3+ goals

13%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

66%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

29%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

55%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 17 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.31 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Banfield defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Banfield scores more

40%

level

28%

Boca Juniors scores more

32%

Banfield at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Romero

Boca Juniors · G

8.2

Match Events

28'

A. Quiroz↳ B. Alemán

44'

Óscar Romero

46'

E. Fernández← Ó. Romero

46'

C. Medina← G. Fernández

55'

57'

60'

60'

64'

E. Olivera← A. Quiroz

67'

M. Merentiel← D. Benedetto

70'

72'

80'

80'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldBoca

Overview

33%Possession67%

15Total Shots13

7Corners6

17Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target2

6Off Target8

3Blocked3

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

216Total Passes460

144Accurate Passes374

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Banfield 1–0 Boca Juniors

Banfield beat Boca Juniors 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 13, 2023.

Goals: A. Quiroz (28').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá in Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Banfield vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Banfield 1–0 Boca Juniors