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Boca Juniors vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
Ó. Romero 69'
1/30/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 1Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Boca Juniors47%
×Draw26%
Atletico Tucuman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.47
Atletico Tucuman
1.02

Boca Juniors creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Atletico Tucuman
1.11

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Atletico Tucuman
1.42

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Atletico Tucuman-0.55scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
74%
Boca Juniors or Atletico Tucuman
74%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
53%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
77%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
43%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
27%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
64%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.11 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
47%
level
26%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
26%

Boca Juniors at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Ó. RomeroBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · F
8.3

Match Events

33'
J. Pereyra
45+2'
M. L. Estigarribia
53'
T. Marchiori
64'
J. Figal
69'
Ó. Romero↳ S. Villa
71'
E. Fernández← G. Fernández
71'
L. Langoni← J. Ramírez
72'
A. Sánchez← R. Tesuri
73'
C. Menéndez← M. Estigarribia
73'
R. Ruiz Rodríguez← M. Coronel
80'
F. Di Franco
81'
Marcelo González← H. De La Fuente
84'
E. Zeballos← S. Villa
85'
C. Medina← Ó. Romero
90+1'
K. Isa Luna← F. Di Franco

Possession

61%Boca

Shots

19Boca

Pass accuracy

55%Boca

Statistics

BocaAtletico
Overview
61%Possession39%
19Total Shots13
5Corners5
13Fouls24
Shots
19Total Shots13
4On Target2
11Off Target6
4Blocked5
8Inside Box8
11Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
459Total Passes290
382Accurate Passes197
83%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls24
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Boca Juniors vs Atletico Tucuman

Boca Juniors beat Atletico Tucuman 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on January 30, 2023.

Goals: Ó. Romero (69').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.