Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Boca Juniors: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Boca Juniors

L. López 56' (OG)

R. Montes 30'

L. López 11'

9/18/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Tucuman46%

×Draw29%

Boca Juniors25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.86

Atletico Tucuman

1.29

Boca Juniors

0.86

Atletico Tucuman creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

0.91

0.81

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.43

Boca Juniors

0.91

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.81

Boca Juniors

1.15

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Tucuman-0.02on par

Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

75%

Atletico Tucuman or Boca Juniors

71%

Draw or Boca Juniors

54%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

21%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

58%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

21%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

65%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 17 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

46%

level

29%

Boca Juniors scores more

25%

Atletico Tucuman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. López

Boca Juniors · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

28'

30'

46'

46'

O. Benítez← R. Tesuri

46'

G. Risso← M. Orihuela

46'

M. Rojo← C. Izquierdoz

56'

L. LópezOwn goal

57'

Felipe Campos

63'

A. Varela← E. Cardona

74'

R. Ruiz← A. Lotti

76'

L. Vázquez← N. Orsini

77'

A. Molinas← J. Ramírez

79'

81'

89'

90+4'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBoca

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots14

2Corners2

17Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target6

5Off Target6

0Blocked2

2Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

425Total Passes406

328Accurate Passes304

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0