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Atletico Tucuman vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
M. Coronel 29'
5/12/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Tucuman46%
×Draw29%
Boca Juniors25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.29
Boca Juniors
0.86

Atletico Tucuman creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.43
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
0.81
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Atletico Tucuman-0.02on par
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
75%
Atletico Tucuman or Boca Juniors
71%
Draw or Boca Juniors
54%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
21%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
37%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
58%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
21%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
65%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 17 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
46%
level
29%
Boca Juniors scores more
25%

Atletico Tucuman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
J. InfanteAtletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman · D
7.9

Match Events

8'
Mateo CoronelGoal cancelled
29'
M. Coronel↳ J. Infante
33'
Nicolás Figal
45+4'
Adrián Sánchez
54'
Nicolás Romero
55'
L. Janson← M. Delgado
55'
J. Saralegui← F. Fabra
58'
M. Estigarribia← M. Bajamich
67'
T. Castro Ponce← A. Lagos
70'
Renzo Tesuri
85'
J. Giani← R. Tesuri
85'
M. Orihuela← G. Acosta
85'
I. Zufiaurre← C. Medina

Possession

32%Atletico

Shots

12Atletico

Pass accuracy

44%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoBoca
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots11
1.41Expected Goals (xG)0.66
3Corners13
12Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots11
5On Target4
4Off Target2
3Blocked5
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
245Total Passes514
165Accurate Passes432
67%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Boca Juniors

Atletico Tucuman beat Boca Juniors 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 12, 2024.

Goals: M. Coronel (29').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.