Boca Juniors 2–1 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Boca Juniors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aldosivi

Miguel Merentiel 84'

L. Advincula 49'

T. Serrago 63'

2/22/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 7Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Boca Juniors52%

×Draw26%

Aldosivi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.89

Boca Juniors

1.54

Aldosivi

0.89

Boca Juniors creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

1.52

creates per match

0.86

0.92

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.52

Aldosivi

0.86

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.92

Aldosivi

1.55

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par

Aldosivi-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

78%

Boca Juniors or Aldosivi

74%

Draw or Aldosivi

48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

27%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

79%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

45%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

20%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

59%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

22%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

71%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.55 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Aldosivi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aldosivi attack 0.86 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

52%

level

26%

Aldosivi scores more

22%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

L. Advincula

Boca Juniors · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

Ander Herrera

44'

Giuliano Cerato

46'

L. Blondel← A. Herrera

49'

L. Advincula↳ M. Delgado

56'

F. Rami← G. Cerato

57'

A. Velasco← A. Martegani

58'

L. Di Lollo← M. Rojo

62'

L. Chavez← E. Preciado

62'

T. Serrago← T. Leiva

63'

T. Serrago↳ J. Giani

66'

Lautaro Blanco

67'

Miguel Merentiel← E. Zeballos

77'

K. Zenon← L. Janson

81'

R. Bochi← M. Esponda

81'

A. Dominguez← E. Torres

84'

Miguel Merentiel↳ M. Gimenez

90+2'

Miguel Merentiel

90'

Kevin Zenón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaAldosivi

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots7

4Corners5

15Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked2

6Inside Box1

5Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

486Total Passes256

414Accurate Passes174

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2