Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aldosivi vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
S. Villa 90+1'
E. Cardona 71'
E. Almendra 16'
11/9/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Aldosivi39%
×Draw30%
Boca Juniors30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.10
Boca Juniors
0.93

Aldosivi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
1.05
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.94
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Aldosivi+0.24scores more
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
70%
Aldosivi or Boca Juniors
70%
Draw or Boca Juniors
61%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
16%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
67%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
30%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
10%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
61%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
24%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
56%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.05 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Aldosivi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aldosivi scores more
39%
level
30%
Boca Juniors scores more
30%

Aldosivi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
E. CardonaBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · M
9.9

Match Events

16'
E. Almendra
46'
Emanuel Insúa← G. Lodico
56'
Frank Fabra
64'
E. Salvio← E. Almendra
71'
E. Cardona
77'
D. González← R. Montes
79'
F. Gino← L. Maciel
79'
M. Panaro← F. Román
87'
A. Varela← J. Campuzano
89'
E. Iñíguez← R. Lucero
89'
P. Becker← M. Braida
90+1'
S. Villa↳ E. Cardona

Possession

39%Aldosivi

Shots

12Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

46%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviBoca
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots28
6Corners7
5Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots28
5On Target11
5Off Target12
2Blocked5
6Inside Box16
6Outside Box12
Passing
39%Possession61%
344Total Passes536
257Accurate Passes465
75%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
8Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Aldosivi vs Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Aldosivi 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 9, 2021.

Goals: E. Almendra (16'), E. Cardona (71'), S. Villa (90+1').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (61%) and registered 28 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.