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Boca Juniors vs Aldosivi — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aldosivi
Aldosivi
D. Benedetto 45+4'
M. Payero 11'
N. Valentini 16'
10/9/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Boca Juniors52%
×Draw26%
Aldosivi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.54
Aldosivi
0.89

Boca Juniors creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Aldosivi
0.86

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Aldosivi
1.55

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Aldosivi-0.15scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Aldosivi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
78%
Boca Juniors or Aldosivi
74%
Draw or Aldosivi
48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
27%
Aldosivi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
79%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
45%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
20%
Aldosivi 1+ goals
59%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
22%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
71%
Aldosivi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.55 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Aldosivi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aldosivi attack 0.86 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
52%
level
26%
Aldosivi scores more
22%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
N. ValentiniAldosiviAldosivi · D
7.7

Match Events

11'
M. Payero
16'
Alan Varela
16'
N. Valentini↳ F. Cerro
19'
Óscar Romero
30'
Matías Pisano
45'
Marcelo Meli
45+4'
D. Benedetto↳ L. Langoni
62'
C. Medina← M. Payero
70'
J. Cuesta← M. Pisano
79'
L. Vázquez← D. Benedetto
79'
D. González← Ó. Romero
80'
S. Rivero← L. Langoni
80'
B. Martínez← T. Martínez
88'
F. Roncaglia← G. Fernández
88'
E. Brítez← F. Cerro
89'
R. Lucero← E. Iñíguez
90+4'
Simón Rivero
90+3'
Elías Britez
90+3'
Santiago Silva

Possession

59%Boca

Shots

14Boca

Pass accuracy

53%Boca

Statistics

BocaAldosivi
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots8
2Corners7
9Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots8
6On Target2
6Off Target4
2Blocked2
8Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
503Total Passes348
411Accurate Passes252
82%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 2–1 Aldosivi

Boca Juniors beat Aldosivi 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 9, 2022.

Goals: M. Payero (11'), N. Valentini (16'), D. Benedetto (45+4').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.