Blackburn 0–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

Gabriel Sara 55'

L. Gibbs 11'

4/7/2023

Championship · Round 40Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Blackburn42%

×Draw26%

Norwich31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Blackburn

1.40

Norwich

1.16

Blackburn creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

1.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Blackburn

1.09

Norwich

1.47

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

58%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

75%

Blackburn 2+ goals

41%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Norwich 1+ goals

69%

Norwich 2+ goals

32%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

58%

Norwich (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Norwich attack 1.22 + Blackburn defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackburn scores more

42%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

31%

Blackburn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Gabriel Sara

Norwich · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

L. Gibbs↳ J. Sørensen

34'

Ben Gibson

42'

A. Omobamidele← G. Hanley

55'

Gabriel Sara↳ O. Hernández

59'

59'

64'

64'

73'

A. Wharton← T. Morton

73'

C. Brittain← J. Rankin-Costello

83'

T. Dolan← L. Travis

83'

A. Idah← J. Sargent

83'

S. McCallum← O. Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnNorwich

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots13

8Corners5

6Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target5

7Off Target4

5Blocked4

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

511Total Passes345

401Accurate Passes251

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3