Blackburn 0–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

4/15/2023

Championship · Round 42Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Blackburn45%

×Draw26%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.10

Blackburn

1.43

Hull City

1.10

Blackburn creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

1.09

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Blackburn

1.09

Hull City

1.52

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

71%

Blackburn or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Hull City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

67%

Hull City 2+ goals

30%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

61%

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hull City attack 1.11 + Blackburn defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more

45%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

29%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Pears

Blackburn · G

7.6

Match Events

54'

Hayden Carter

68'

D. Pelkas← A. Sayyadmanesh

72'

R. Hedges← B. Brereton

72'

S. Thomas← T. Dolan

74'

G. Docherty← O. Tufan

84'

A. Wharton← L. Travis

84'

H. Leonard← S. Gallagher

85'

C. Brittain← J. Rankin-Costello

85'

X. Simons← J. Seri

85'

M. Ebiowei← H. Vaughan

86'

Dimitrios Pelkas

90+3'

Karl Darlow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnHull

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots11

9Corners3

12Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target3

8Off Target7

4Blocked1

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

589Total Passes375

514Accurate Passes290

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2