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Blackburn vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
B. Brereton 65'
Daniel Ayala 61'
9/14/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Blackburn45%
×Draw26%
Hull City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.44
Hull City
1.11

Blackburn creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.33
Hull City
1.11

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
Hull City
1.54

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less
Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
71%
Blackburn or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
22%
Hull City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
76%
Blackburn 2+ goals
42%
Blackburn 3+ goals
18%
Hull City 1+ goals
67%
Hull City 2+ goals
30%
Hull City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
60%
Hull City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hull City attack 1.11 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more
45%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
29%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Daniel AyalaBlackburnBlackburn · D
7.9

Match Events

54'
R. Khadra← J. Buckley
54'
D. Butterworth← L. Clarkson
59'
Callum Elder
61'
Daniel Ayala↳ J. Rothwell
65'
B. Brereton↳ L. Travis
67'
G. Moncur← M. Smith
68'
R. Longman← J. Magennis
74'
Harry Pickering
76'
T. Smith← M. Wilks
79'
Di'Shon Bernard
89'
J. Davenport← T. Dolan

Possession

45%Blackburn

Shots

18Blackburn

Pass accuracy

48%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnHull
Overview
45%Possession55%
18Total Shots16
6Corners6
7Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots16
6On Target4
8Off Target6
4Blocked6
10Inside Box4
8Outside Box12
Passing
45%Possession55%
404Total Passes495
314Accurate Passes410
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Hull City

Blackburn beat Hull City 2-0 in Championship on September 14, 2021.

Goals: Daniel Ayala (61'), B. Brereton (65').

Hull City controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.