Blackburn 3–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

D. Samuel 80'

A. Armstrong 79'

D. Lenihan 73'

2/11/2020

Championship · Round 32Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Blackburn44%

×Draw26%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.11

Blackburn

1.43

Hull City

1.11

Blackburn creates 29% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Hull City

1.53

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Hull City+0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

71%

Blackburn or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

21%

Hull City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

67%

Hull City 2+ goals

30%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

60%

Hull City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Hull City defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hull City attack 1.11 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more

44%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

29%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Lenihan

Blackburn · D

8.4

Match Events

36'

Callum Elder

60'

D. Samuel← E. Bennett

60'

B. Brereton← D. Graham

70'

K. Lewis-Potter← M. Wilks

70'

T. Eaves← J. Magennis

73'

D. Lenihan

79'

A. Armstrong↳ B. Johnson

80'

D. Samuel

83'

J. Buckley← S. Downing

83'

J. Berry-McNally← D. Batty

86'

George Honeyman

89'

Lewis Travis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnHull

Overview

70%Possession30%

27Total Shots10

7Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

27Total Shots10

11On Target0

12Off Target8

4Blocked2

16Inside Box6

11Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

597Total Passes241

509Accurate Passes137

85%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1