Blackburn 2–1 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Derby

H. Elliott 66'

S. Gallagher 42'

T. Lawrence 22'

4/16/2021

Championship · Round 42Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Blackburn43%

×Draw27%

Derby30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Blackburn

1.33

Derby

1.06

Blackburn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

1.33

creates per match

1.01

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Derby

1.01

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Derby

1.32

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

70%

Blackburn or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

57%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Derby wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Derby 1+ goals

65%

Derby 2+ goals

29%

Derby 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

59%

Derby (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Derby attack 1.01 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackburn scores more

43%

level

27%

Derby scores more

30%

Blackburn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

H. Elliott

Blackburn · F

7.9

Match Events

22'

T. Lawrence↳ G. Shinnie

32'

Lewis Holtby

42'

S. Gallagher↳ B. Douglas

45'

Matthew Clarke

57'

J. Rothwell← L. Holtby

57'

C. Kazim-Richards← L. Sibley

66'

H. Elliott↳ A. Armstrong

67'

Harvey Elliott

70'

L. Watson← K. Jóźwiak

70'

L. Buchanan← C. Forsyth

83'

B. Brereton← S. Gallagher

83'

E. Bennett← H. Elliott

84'

F. Ebosele← T. Lawrence

88'

C. Evans← A. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnDerby

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots12

3Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

352Total Passes463

251Accurate Passes360

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides4