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Blackburn vs Derby — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
B. Dack 90+2'
J. Rothwell 76'
4/9/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Blackburn43%
×Draw27%
Derby30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.33
Derby
1.06

Blackburn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.33
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
Derby
1.32

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
70%
Blackburn or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
57%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
20%
Derby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
74%
Blackburn 2+ goals
38%
Blackburn 3+ goals
15%
Derby 1+ goals
65%
Derby 2+ goals
29%
Derby 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
59%
Derby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Derby attack 1.01 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackburn scores more
43%
level
27%
Derby scores more
30%

Blackburn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
C. ConwayBlackburnBlackburn · M
8.1

Match Events

51'
Elliott Bennett
52'
M. Bennett← M. Waghorn
65'
D. Holmes← C. Bryson
73'
D. Nugent← M. Mount
76'
J. Rothwell
81'
A. Armstrong← J. Rothwell
85'
Lewis Travis
90'
J. Nuttall← D. Graham
90+4'
C. Evans← H. Reed
90+2'
B. Dack

Possession

48%Blackburn

Shots

23Blackburn

Pass accuracy

49%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnDerby
Overview
48%Possession52%
23Total Shots6
9Corners3
10Fouls13
Shots
23Total Shots6
5On Target1
9Off Target4
9Blocked1
17Inside Box2
6Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
397Total Passes455
284Accurate Passes338
72%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Derby

Blackburn beat Derby 2-0 in Championship on April 9, 2019.

Goals: J. Rothwell (76'), B. Dack (90+2').

Derby controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 23.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.