Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blackburn vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
14:00
Cardiff
Cardiff
10/10/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Ewood Park
Big match
46%
Blackburn
model favours
46%27%27%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Blackburn46%
×Draw27%
Cardiff27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.36
Cardiff
0.98

Blackburn creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

creates per match

Blackburn
0.81
Cardiff
0.80

allows per match

Blackburn
1.16
Cardiff
1.92

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
73%
Blackburn or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
21%
Cardiff wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
74%
Blackburn 2+ goals
39%
Blackburn 3+ goals
16%
Cardiff 1+ goals
62%
Cardiff 2+ goals
26%
Cardiff 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
63%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 0.81 + Cardiff defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cardiff attack 0.80 + Blackburn defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more
46%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
27%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Blackburn
DLWDL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn face Cardiff (Championship)

Championship returns with Blackburn hosting Cardiff. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blackburn host Cardiff at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.