BK Hacken 3–3 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AIK Stockholm

S. Leach 90', 58'

S. Nioule 62'

A. Kakoullis 72'

V. Andersson 69'

B. Tiedemann 16'

5/14/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 9Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

BK Hacken35%

×Draw26%

AIK Stockholm39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

BK Hacken

1.33

AIK Stockholm

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

0.95

1.87

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

BK Hacken

1.63

AIK Stockholm

0.95

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.87

AIK Stockholm

1.03

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

BK Hacken+0.04on par

AIK Stockholm-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

61%

BK Hacken or AIK Stockholm

74%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

65%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

16%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

74%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

38%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

15%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

76%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

41%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

48%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.87 · 6 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.63 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.33

AIK Stockholm attack 0.95 + BK Hacken defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BK Hacken scores more

35%

level

26%

AIK Stockholm scores more

39%

AIK Stockholm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Leach

BK Hacken · M

9.3

Match Events

16'

Etrit Berisha

16'

B. Tiedemann↳ B. Celina

26'

Benjamin Tiedemann Hansen

30'

Anton Salétros

46'

S. Nioule← J. Lindberg

46'

F. Benkovic← B. Tiedemann

53'

Filip Ohman

58'

S. Leach↳ S. Andersen

59'

J. Dembe← S. Hrstic

62'

S. Nioule↳ J. Dembe

67'

N. Zecevic← M. Lode

67'

A. Kakoullis← J. Guidetti

67'

V. Andersson← K. Karlsson

67'

A. Fesshaie← J. Hove

69'

V. Andersson↳ M. Thychosen

72'

A. Kakoullis↳ V. Andersson

80'

B. Engdahl← F. Ohman

80'

H. Hilvenius← S. Jansson

85'

Silas Andersen

90+3'

J. Uronen← D. Besirovic

90'

S. Leach↳ B. Engdahl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BKAIK

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots7

4Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target5

6Off Target2

5Blocked0

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

628Total Passes312

543Accurate Passes230

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1