BK Hacken 4–1 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

AIK Stockholm

6/2/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 12Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

BK Hacken37%

×Draw26%

AIK Stockholm36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.28

BK Hacken

1.31

AIK Stockholm

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.76

creates per match

0.88

1.69

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

BK Hacken

1.76

AIK Stockholm

0.88

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.69

AIK Stockholm

0.86

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

BK Hacken-0.56scores less

AIK Stockholm-0.05on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

64%

BK Hacken or AIK Stockholm

74%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

63%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

17%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

73%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

38%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

14%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

72%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

37%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

51%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.86 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.76 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.31

AIK Stockholm attack 0.88 + BK Hacken defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BK Hacken scores more

37%

level

26%

AIK Stockholm scores more

36%

BK Hacken at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff