AIK Stockholm 4–0 BK Hacken: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BK Hacken

3/9/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK Stockholm29%

×Draw21%

BK Hacken50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchBK Hacken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.21

AIK Stockholm

1.65

BK Hacken

2.21

BK Hacken creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

2.08

creates per match

3.72

0.69

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

2.08

BK Hacken

3.72

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

0.69

BK Hacken

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

BK Hacken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

50%

AIK Stockholm or BK Hacken

79%

Draw or BK Hacken

71%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

14%

BK Hacken wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

81%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

49%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

23%

BK Hacken 1+ goals

89%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

65%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

37%

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 3.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.08 + BK Hacken defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

BK Hacken attack 3.72 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

29%

level

21%

BK Hacken scores more

50%

BK Hacken at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff