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Birmingham vs Wrexham — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
14:00
Wrexham
Wrexham
4/17/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43
54%
Birmingham
model favours
54%25%21%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Birmingham54%
×Draw25%
Wrexham21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.62
Wrexham
0.92

Birmingham creates 76% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
Wrexham
0.86

allows per match

Birmingham
0.97
Wrexham
1.62

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par
Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
79%
Birmingham or Wrexham
75%
Draw or Wrexham
46%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
29%
Wrexham wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
80%
Birmingham 2+ goals
48%
Birmingham 3+ goals
22%
Wrexham 1+ goals
60%
Wrexham 2+ goals
23%
Wrexham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
72%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Birmingham scores more
54%
level
25%
Wrexham scores more
21%

Birmingham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Wrexham
Balanced
46%Possession48%
69%Pass accuracyBiggest gap77%
11.9Shots11.3
1.27xG1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamWrexham

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Birmingham
2
Draws
0
Wrexham
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 75%
2–01–11–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWWDW
Wrexham
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Wrexham (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Wrexham. Match starts April 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.