Birmingham 1–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

G. Hall 19'

R. Manaj 63'

8/16/2022

Championship · Round 4St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham49%

×Draw26%

Watford25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Birmingham

1.50

Watford

1.00

Birmingham creates 50% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

1.62

creates per match

1.01

0.99

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Watford

1.38

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

75%

Birmingham or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

51%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

25%

Watford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham 2+ goals

44%

Birmingham 3+ goals

19%

Watford 1+ goals

63%

Watford 2+ goals

26%

Watford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

66%

Watford (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Watford attack 1.01 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham scores more

49%

level

26%

Watford scores more

25%

Birmingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Cathcart

Watford · D

7.5

Match Events

19'

G. Hall↳ S. Hogan

45+3'

Hamza Choudhury

55'

R. Manaj← V. Bayo

63'

R. Manaj↳ K. Sema

76'

D. Gosling← Y. Asprilla

79'

A. Chang← G. Hall

81'

Dion Sanderson

85'

L. Jutkiewicz← S. Hogan

85'

J. Leko← T. Deeney

88'

J. Hungbo← K. Sema

88'

K. Davis← E. Kayembe

90+2'

G. Friend← P. Płacheta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWatford

Overview

29%Possession71%

7Total Shots15

2Corners5

12Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target2

3Off Target10

0Blocked3

3Inside Box11

4Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

245Total Passes609

161Accurate Passes517

66%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1