Birmingham 1–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

Jérémie Bela 90' (pen)

K. Sadlier 87' (pen)

9/26/2020

Championship · Round 3St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Birmingham64%

×Draw22%

Rotherham14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.72

Birmingham

1.84

Rotherham

0.72

Birmingham creates 156% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

1.62

creates per match

0.47

0.97

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Rotherham

0.47

allows per match

Birmingham

0.97

Rotherham

2.06

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par

Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

86%

Birmingham or Rotherham

78%

Draw or Rotherham

36%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

38%

Rotherham wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

84%

Birmingham 2+ goals

55%

Birmingham 3+ goals

28%

Rotherham 1+ goals

51%

Rotherham 2+ goals

16%

Rotherham 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

82%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Birmingham scores more

64%

level

22%

Rotherham scores more

14%

Birmingham at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Iván Sánchez

Birmingham · M

7.6

Match Events

45'

Angus MacDonald

61'

M. Smith← G. Hirst

66'

Jon Toral← S. Hogan

69'

K. Sadlier← M. Miller

72'

Ivan Šunjić

77'

G. Gardner← I. Šunjić

87'

K. SadlierPenalty

90'

Jérémie BelaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamRotherham

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots9

5Corners6

17Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

343Total Passes258

221Accurate Passes143

64%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1