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Birmingham vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
L. Jutkiewicz 68', 23', 20'
J. Taylor 77'
10/6/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Birmingham64%
×Draw22%
Rotherham14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.84
Rotherham
0.72

Birmingham creates 156% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

Birmingham
0.97
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
86%
Birmingham or Rotherham
78%
Draw or Rotherham
36%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
38%
Rotherham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
84%
Birmingham 2+ goals
55%
Birmingham 3+ goals
28%
Rotherham 1+ goals
51%
Rotherham 2+ goals
16%
Rotherham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
82%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Birmingham scores more
64%
level
22%
Rotherham scores more
14%

Birmingham at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. JutkiewiczBirminghamBirmingham · F
9.5

Match Events

20'
L. Jutkiewicz↳ Jota Peleteiro
23'
L. Jutkiewicz
50'
Joe Mattock
55'
K. Vassell← J. Newell
63'
B. Wiles← R. Manning
68'
L. Jutkiewicz↳ Jota Peleteiro
73'
C. Mahoney← J. Maghoma
74'
M. Roberts← M. Morrison
77'
J. Taylor↳ K. Vassell
88'
Z. Vyner← M. Palmer
90'
B. Lubala← Che Adams

Possession

43%Birmingham

Shots

12Birmingham

Pass accuracy

48%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamRotherham
Overview
43%Possession57%
12Total Shots11
3Corners5
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots11
5On Target6
4Off Target3
3Blocked2
7Inside Box4
5Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
313Total Passes409
186Accurate Passes261
59%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Rotherham

Birmingham beat Rotherham 3-1 in Championship on October 6, 2018.

Goals: L. Jutkiewicz (20', 23', 68'), J. Taylor (77').

Rotherham controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.