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Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2025

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Konyaspor
Konyasporadvanced
E. Bardhi 90' (pen)
5/5/2026Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsBesiktas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beşiktaş49%
×Draw24%
Konyaspor27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.65
Konyaspor
1.15

Beşiktaş creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
2.50
Konyaspor
1.80

allows per match

Beşiktaş
0.50
Konyaspor
0.80

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Konyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Konyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
73%
Beşiktaş or Konyaspor
76%
Draw or Konyaspor
51%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
26%
Konyaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
81%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
49%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
23%
Konyaspor 1+ goals
68%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
32%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
65%
Konyaspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Konyaspor away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 2.50 + Konyaspor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Konyaspor attack 1.80 + Beşiktaş defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
49%
level
24%
Konyaspor scores more
27%

Beşiktaş at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
U. YazgiliKonyasporKonyaspor · D
7.5

Match Events

37'
Orkun Kökçü
37'
Emmanuel Agbadou
42'
Deniz Türüç
73'
K. Olaigbe← D. Goncalves
83'
V. Cerny← K. Asllani
90+5'
Junior Olaitan
90+2'
Bahadır Han Güngördü
90'
E. BardhiPenalty

Possession

59%Beşiktaş

Shots

16Beşiktaş

Pass accuracy

52%Beşiktaş

Statistics

BeşiktaşKonyaspor
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots7
15Corners4
13Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots7
1On Target1
10Off Target3
5Blocked3
12Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
409Total Passes290
336Accurate Passes224
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor

Konyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on May 5, 2026.

Goals: E. Bardhi (90' pen).

Beşiktaş controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Besiktas Park in Istanbul.