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Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor — League #203 2026

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Konyaspor
Konyaspor
Rafa 45+2'
C. Immobile 29' (pen)
10/20/2024League #203League #203 · Round 9Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş50%
×Draw24%
Konyaspor26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.73
Konyaspor
1.18

Beşiktaş creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.38
Konyaspor
1.36

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.00
Konyaspor
2.09

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Konyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Konyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
74%
Beşiktaş or Konyaspor
76%
Draw or Konyaspor
50%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
27%
Konyaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
82%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
52%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
25%
Konyaspor 1+ goals
69%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
33%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
66%
Konyaspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Konyaspor away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.38 + Konyaspor defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.73

Konyaspor attack 1.36 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
50%
level
24%
Konyaspor scores more
26%

Beşiktaş at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. ImmobileBeşiktaşBeşiktaş · F
7.9

Match Events

29'
C. ImmobilePenalty
33'
Adil Demirbağ
45+2'
Rafa↳ E. Muçi
50'
Rafa Silva
50'
Yusuf Erdoğan
59'
Blaž Kramer
60'
Jonas Svensson
66'
H. Keyta← Y. Erdoğan
66'
L. Prip← Pedrinho
68'
Al Musrati← S. Kılıçsoy
74'
M. İbrahimoğlu← E. Boateng
86'
João Mário← Gedson Fernandes
86'
O. Bulut← Rafa
86'
M. Bostan← D. Aleksić
86'
M. Jevtović← R. Bazoer
90+4'
Melih Bostan

Possession

56%Beşiktaş

Shots

18Beşiktaş

Pass accuracy

52%Beşiktaş

Statistics

BeşiktaşKonyaspor
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots14
3.05Expected Goals (xG)1.35
9Corners5
16Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots14
7On Target2
6Off Target10
5Blocked2
16Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
527Total Passes403
440Accurate Passes310
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
0.72Goals Prevented0.72
Discipline
16Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor

Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 2-0 in League #203 on October 20, 2024.

Goals: C. Immobile (29' pen), Rafa (45+2').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.