Port Vale 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

8/18/2018

League Two · Round 3Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale47%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Port Vale

1.50

Crawley Town

1.06

Port Vale creates 42% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 158 away

1.37

creates per match

1.08

1.05

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Crawley Town

1.08

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Crawley Town

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

73%

Port Vale or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

53%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

24%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

78%

Port Vale 2+ goals

44%

Port Vale 3+ goals

19%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

65%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

29%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

64%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Port Vale scores more

47%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

27%

Port Vale at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff