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Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1/17/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 17Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem43%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Bnei Raina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Jerusalem
1.40
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.15

Beitar Jerusalem creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 68 away

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.40
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.01

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.28
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.41

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par
Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw
69%
Beitar Jerusalem or Maccabi Bnei Raina
74%
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
57%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
75%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
41%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
17%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
32%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
58%
Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.40 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more
43%
level
26%
Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
31%

Beitar Jerusalem at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Beitar Jerusalem 1–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina

Maccabi Bnei Raina beat Beitar Jerusalem 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.