Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Beitar Jerusalem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

O. Atzili 62' (pen)

D. Biton 90+4'

5/19/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Championship Round - 9Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem33%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar JerusalemExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.38

Beitar Jerusalem

1.21

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.38

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 14% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 111 away

1.42

creates per match

1.45

1.31

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.42

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.45

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.31

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw

59%

Beitar Jerusalem or Hapoel Beer Sheva

74%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

67%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

14%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

70%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

34%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

12%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

75%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

40%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

45%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.42 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.45 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

33%

level

26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

41%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

O. Atzili

Beitar Jerusalem · M

7.6

Match Events

8'

Gil Cohen

39'

Paul Arnold GaritaGoal cancelled

43'

Yarden Shua

44'

Or Blorian

57'

A. Turgeman← A. Garita

58'

Niv Eliasi

62'

O. AtziliPenalty

65'

D. Micha← Y. Shua

65'

Iuri Medeiros← Z. Ahmed

65'

A. Ganah← E. Peretz

75'

P. Twumasi← A. Yona

75'

J. Jeno← M. George

85'

G. Mizrahi← O. Blorian

85'

R. Gordana← K. Kangwa

87'

N. Dabush← O. Atzili

90+8'

Abiezer Jeno

90+7'

Abiezer JenoCard upgrade

90+4'

D. Biton↳ G. Mizrahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeitarHapoel

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots11

3Corners5

13Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots11

2On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

8Inside Box9

0Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

317Total Passes365

224Accurate Passes293

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Beer Sheva drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on May 19, 2025.

Goals: O. Atzili (62' pen), D. Biton (90+4').

Hapoel Beer Sheva controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.

Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Beer Sheva