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Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
O. Oularé 83'
M. Lestienne 76'
F. Avenatti 32'
8/30/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 4Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Beerschot VA37%
×Draw26%
Standard Liege37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.34
Standard Liege
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.20
Standard Liege
1.05

allows per match

Beerschot VA
1.66
Standard Liege
1.49

finishing

Beerschot VA-0.06on par
Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
63%
Beerschot VA or Standard Liege
74%
Draw or Standard Liege
63%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
17%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
74%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
39%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
15%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
74%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
39%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
50%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.66 · 7 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.20 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Beerschot VA defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
37%
level
26%
Standard Liege scores more
37%

Beerschot VA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Ryan Sanusi
32'
F. Avenatti↳ N. Raskin
46'
M. Halaimia← D. Prychynenko
61'
O. Oularé← F. Avenatti
69'
A. Tapsoba← D. Čop
73'
Collins Fai
75'
M. Bokadi← E. Shamir
76'
M. Lestienne↳ N. Raskin
77'
M. Suzuki← R. Sanusi
80'
Yan Vorogovskiy
83'
O. Oularé↳ M. Lestienne
84'
Raphael Holzhauser

Possession

43%Beerschot

Shots

13Beerschot

Statistics

BeerschotStandard
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots13
7Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots13
5On Target9
8Off Target4
Passing
43%Possession57%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs Standard Liege

Standard Liege beat Beerschot VA 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on August 30, 2020.

Goals: F. Avenatti (32'), M. Lestienne (76'), O. Oularé (83').

Standard Liege controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Olympisch Stadion in Anvers.