Bayern Munich W 1–1 Barcelona W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona W

F. Kett 69'

E. Pajor 8'

4/25/2026

UEFA Champions League Women · Semi-finalsAllianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bayern Munich W36%

×Draw23%

Barcelona W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchBarcelona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.73

Bayern Munich W

1.59

Barcelona W

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

2.30

creates per match

2.69

0.78

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Barcelona W

2.69

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Barcelona W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Barcelona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

59%

Bayern Munich W or Barcelona W

77%

Draw or Barcelona W

64%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

17%

Barcelona W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

80%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

47%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

21%

Barcelona W 1+ goals

82%

Barcelona W 2+ goals

52%

Barcelona W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

46%

Barcelona W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Barcelona W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Barcelona W attack 2.69 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

36%

level

23%

Barcelona W scores more

41%

Barcelona W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Kett

Bayern Munich W · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

E. Pajor↳ E. Brugts

18'

Vicky López

62'

C. Serrajordi← V. Lopez

69'

F. Kett↳ P. Harder

73'

S. Paralluelo← C. Graham

73'

K. Nazareth← C. Pina

75'

A. Caruso← K. Buhl

80'

Franziska Kett

81'

S. Ballisager← L. Dallmann

83'

Patricia Guijarro

90+1'

Ena Mahmutovic

90+4'

Clara Serrajordi Díaz

90+4'

E. Imade← P. Harder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayernBarcelona

Overview

27%Possession73%

7Total Shots21

3Corners6

9Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots21

4On Target7

2Off Target9

1Blocked5

6Inside Box16

1Outside Box5

Passing

27%Possession73%

249Total Passes683

186Accurate Passes619

75%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0