Bayern Munich W 3–1 Barcelona W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Barcelona W

L. Schüller 60'

L. Magull 10'

K. Bühl 4'

Geyse Ferreira 65'

12/7/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 4Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bayern Munich W36%

×Draw23%

Barcelona W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchBarcelona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.73

Bayern Munich W

1.59

Barcelona W

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

2.30

creates per match

2.69

0.78

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Barcelona W

2.69

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Barcelona W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Barcelona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

59%

Bayern Munich W or Barcelona W

77%

Draw or Barcelona W

64%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

17%

Barcelona W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

80%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

47%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

21%

Barcelona W 1+ goals

82%

Barcelona W 2+ goals

52%

Barcelona W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

46%

Barcelona W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Barcelona W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Barcelona W attack 2.69 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

36%

level

23%

Barcelona W scores more

41%

Barcelona W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

K. Bühl↳ S. Lohmann

10'

L. Magull↳ L. Schüller

46'

Salma Paralluelo← Mariona Caldentey

46'

I. Engen← K. Walsh

60'

L. Schüller↳ L. Magull

65'

Geyse Ferreira

70'

Clàudia Pina← Patri Guijarro

75'

F. Kett← L. Schüller

77'

A. Bonmati

81'

S. Kumagai← S. Lohmann

84'

E. Bragstad← M. Rall

86'

Marta Torrejón← A. Crnogorčević

86'

A. Oshoala← Geyse Ferreira

Bayern

Barcelona

1

Paños

7

▼

15

4

2

12

▼

Guijarro

14

Bonmatí

21

▼

Walsh

16

Rolfö

9

▼

Caldentey

18

⚽

▼

Ferreira

22

Grohs

30

Simon

8

▼

Rall

4

Viggósdót

13

Tainara

16

⚽A

Magull

25

Zadrazil

31

Stanway

12

A

▼

Lohmann

17

⚽

Bühl

11

⚽A

▼

Schüller

Manager: A. Straus

75'▲F. Kett←▼L. Schüller

81'▲S. Kumagai←▼S. Lohmann

84'▲E. Bragstad←▼M. Rall

Bayern Munich W substitutes

20Kett3Kumagai14Bragstad35Landenberger44Rúnarsdóttir33Leitzig36Gloning37Rudelić27Laurent39Kappes1Benkarth

Manager: Jonatan Giráldez

46'▲Salma Paralluelo←▼Mariona Caldentey

46'▲I. Engen←▼K. Walsh

70'▲Clàudia Pina←▼Patri Guijarro

86'▲Marta Torrejón←▼A. Crnogorčević

86'▲A. Oshoala←▼Geyse Ferreira

Barcelona W substitutes

17Paralluelo23Engen6Pina8Torrejón20Oshoala24Font3Codina19Vilamala22Rábano37Font25Ramírez